Can beat Sanders Clinton
The drunk Formula 1 driver: Donald Trump
Trump's candidacy continues to dominate the Republican primary. As strange as it may seem from a distance, the egomaniacal, uncompromising style in which Trump tells the supposed truth appeals to Americans - at least those who have given their opinion in polls. There he is consistently and well ahead of his competition. If the Republican establishment initially tried to dismiss the polls as a summer high, it is now getting nervous. Not even a sexist swipe at the popular Fox presenter Megyn Kelly and the subsequent abuse by the home-and-yard broadcaster could harm Trump. Thematically, too, he drives the competition before him and easily manages to destroy any effort to create a more modern image of the party - recently, for example, with the demand to abolish the citizenship enshrined in the constitution at birth. As long as Trump relies solely on his television appearances and completely refrains from building an organization, he will not bring home the nomination. Trump's candidacy is reminiscent of a Formula 1 race with a drunk driver: everyone is pretty sure he won't win - they still base the race's strategy on him.
The slow rise: Carly Fiorina
The only one who has benefited from being at the "children's table" at 6pm in the first Republican debate and not having to compete with Trump in the main debate is former HP CEO Fiorina. It has risen steadily in the polls since the debate. If she keeps this momentum, she could become a viable alternative to the men Bush, Walker and Rubio for some.
Third attempt: Joe Biden
Allegedly, the Vice President's son, Beau Biden, who died a few months ago, wrested the same on his deathbed, but tried his luck a third time. The rumor mill has been rumbling for a few days. Allegedly he has several endorsements and donations, all that is missing is the official go. That would stir up the race on the democratic side again: polls show a clear split, around half of the democratic base would like to run, the other rejects it. In the swing states, Biden's numbers against a fictional Republican are at least as good as Clinton's. In any case, it would be a hedge should Clinton stumble upon her email affair or something as yet unknown.
The whiz kid: Bernie Sanders
Sanders still fills halls. The first poll was recently published, in which he is a few percentage points ahead of Clinton in the first pre-election state, New Hampshire. Nobody really believes that Sanders can beat Clinton - especially because it would be highly risky for the Democratic Party to put a politician who describes himself as a (democratic) socialist into the race. When you talk to grassroots Democrats, there are many who want to give him the vote in the primary and then would be happy with Clinton in the second ballot. It is almost as if the progressive democratic grassroots are indulging in a daydream from which they will wake themselves up in January. In any case, Sanders will return to the Senate strengthened by this campaign.
The wobbly tip: Hillary Clinton
Clinton can't shake her email affair. As Foreign Minister, she did not use her @ state.gov address, but a private e-mail server stored on a server in her house. After a long refusal, she handed it over to the judiciary. Everything revolves around the question of whether she received classified messages via this server and thus violated security standards - which could lead to a criminal investigation. Not the words one would want to associate with a presidential candidate. The situation itself and the more than unsuccessful crisis communication - including irritated answers in interviews - are causing Clinton's popularity ratings to decline. The affair confirms the image many have of the Clintons: a family who believes rules don't apply to them. Time is the most important factor in this context: Can the Republicans keep the scandal boiling until November 2016 at best, or will Clinton manage to draw a line and regain topical leadership?
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