Where is Delphi used in industry?
Delphi method, Delphi method. 1. Term: Form of the expert survey.
2. Objective / benefit: Consolidation and analysis of expert opinions. Their use is primarily of a heuristic nature.
3. Procedure: Experts are asked individually in writing about a complex problem in several rounds. The overall results of each round are given to each of the experts involved at the beginning of the following round. Different assessments of the probability of occurrence of possible future events are confronted with one another. Over time, there is a convergence and narrowing of the range of the estimates given by the experts, since the “most convincing” arguments should diffuse in the long term among the group of respondents. Opinions also often diverge on polarizing points of view.
4. Assumptions: Experts know the future better than others; several experts forecast no worse than a single one.
5. Problems: It is unclear whether the opinion the group converges against is a deeply reflected consensus or just the result of the tendency for the less convinced to conform to the more convinced. There are tendencies that respondents correct themselves in the direction of the general public.
6. Application: Support of the scenario technique.
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